SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 25/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~10 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6300/6280
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6410 SUP 6260
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6370/80
DAILY RANGE RES 6465 SUP 6348
2 SIGMA RES 6523 SUP 6286
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6396
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: DISPERSION
FICC and Equities
July 24, 2025
The S&P closed up 7bps at 6,363, with a Market on Close (MOC) sell of $3.7b. The NDX climbed 25bps to 23,219, while the Russell 2000 (R2K) gained 136bps, reaching 2,263. The Dow fell 70bps to 44,693. A total of 21 billion shares exchanged hands on U.S. equity exchanges, compared to the year-to-date daily average of 16.8 billion shares. The VIX increased by 13bps to 15.39, crude oil rose by 120bps to $66.03, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield gained 1bp to 4.39%, gold dropped 69bps to 3,431, while the DXY rose by 32bps to 97.51, and Bitcoin fell by 10bps to $118,649.
The session was relatively choppy, with some internal improvements (larger stocks outperforming smaller ones, and more long positions than short). It's been 26 days since a sell-off of over 1%, which may seem significant, but it’s not uncommon here, and the decline in the VIX is evident.
Focus remains on earnings. The consumer sector showed general weakness today, with several companies like CMG, MAT, HZO, AAL, and LKQ disappointing. While none of these provide a clear indication of the overall consumer sentiment, it is noteworthy. Airlines performed poorly, with AAL and LUV both dropping around 10% following their results. GOOG/L rose by 1% but dwindled as the session progressed, likely influenced by an upcoming DOJ ruling expected in mid-August and a recent challenging setup (the stock had risen 10 out of 11 days before the report). Desk flows reflected long-only investors reducing their positions into the strength.
In the financial sector, BX surged by 3% amid very optimistic comments during their call about capital markets activity in the second half of 2025. They noted, “based on our proprietary data, we're seeing the busiest pipeline of potential IPOs since 2021." TPG, KKR, and CG also saw upward movement in one accord.
Our trading floor maintained a score of 5 on a scale of 1 to 10 regarding overall activity levels, ending 340bps for sale compared to a 20-day average of +59bps. Long-only investors were largely flat with tech and macro product supply against discretionary and industrials demand. Hedge funds were slight net sellers, with a bias towards short positions over long in discretionary and macro products. Additionally, McGraw Hill had an IPO today, successfully pricing, opening, and closing at $17. Tomorrow, we will be observing data on U.S. durable goods, capital goods, and pre-open earnings from AN, AON, BAH, CHTR, CNC, GNTX, HCA, LEA, POR, PSX, SAIA, VRTS, and WNC.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!