USD Pushing Higher
The US Dollar is rising midweek amidst a better tone to recent data and some growing optimism over EU/US trade. A better set of durable goods data yesterday and a sharply stronger consumer confidence number helped lift the greenback as shorts covered positions into recent lows. Alongside that data we’ve heard Trump expressing optimism over the prospect of a US/EU trade deal, feeding into better USD sentiment here.
FOMC Minutes & Further Data
Looking ahead this week, traders will be watching the latest FOMC minutes due today. In particular traders will be looking for clues as to the Fed’s outlook on the transitory nature of tariff-driven inflation. However, it is worth noting that the Fed’s last meeting fell before the US/China 90-day deal on reducing tariffs, which needs to be taken into consideration. As such, there could be some dovish risks into the meeting today. Currently, the market is pricing in around two-rate cuts this year, in line with the Fed’s own forecasts. Later in the week, focus will shift to weekly jobless claims tomorrow, along with prelim Q/Q GDP and core PCE on Friday.
Technical Views
DXY
For now, DXY is holding support at the 99.15 level, suggesting the potential for a double bottom to form here. For bulls, focus is on a break of the bear channel highs and local res at the 100.38 level. If price can push above there, 101.91 will be the next objective for bulls.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.