Investment Bank Outlook 23-06-2021
Danske Bank
Today's key releases are the preliminary PMIs for the euro area, the UK and the US. We will look for signs whether we have seen a peak in manufacturing and whether activity is picking up in services amid the gradual easing of restrictions. We discussed the global manufacturing cycle with a lot of focus on the US in more detail in Research Global: Manufacturing cycle to peak in Q3, 21 June. We discussed the euro area manufacturing cycle in more detail in Research Euro Area - Tide is slowly turning for European manufacturing, 22 June. Besides that, we have some Fed and ECB speeches including from ECB President Lagarde. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (both Democrats) are meeting with White House officials today discussing the way forward on an infrastructure package.
ECB strategic review: According to a Reuters story yesterday, ECB policymakers are still apart on a new inflation strategy in connection with the ECB's strategic review. Especially, Reuters writes that they have yet to agree on a specific strategy on inflation overshoot. The hope is for a deal before a September decision on PEPP
SEB
PMI data from Euro area, UK and US today. In today's data harvest, we focus primarily on preliminary figures for the June Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The mood in the service sector appears to be improving thanks to the gradual easing of Covid-19 -related restrictions, which has led to increased mobility and demand for restaurant visits, hotels and travel. PMI for the manufacturing industry is expected to decline slightly but remain at a high level. The statistics are difficult to predict as they are disrupted by delivery delays, but the trend clearly shows a recovery, especially in the service sector. Our forecast applies to the euro area, but the pattern is similar throughout the EU. The Central Bank of the Czech Republic is likely to follow the decision of the Bank of Hungary yesterday and raise its policy rate today by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The situation in the two EU countries is different from that of the euro area, where the ECB sees inflation to remain well below its target in the medium-term.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.